Three key phases of risk-informed development

Key phases and stages

The risk-informed development planning process can be broken down into three main phases; these phases break down into nine risk-informed development stages. 

Phase I: Define (re-define) 

• Stage 1: Engage with communities most at risk 
• Stage 2: Organise around the vision of the community most at risk
• Stage 3: Understand context and risks

Phase II: Assess and anticipate

• Stage 4: Risk prioritisation and development impact assessment
• Stage 5: Strategic foresight and scenario planning
• Stage 6: Strategise with communities most at risk

Phase III: Act and manage

• Stage 7: Action with communities most at risk
• Stage 8: Accountability to communities most at risk and learning with them
• Stage 9: Repeat and strengthen

Phase I: Define (re-define)

Stage 1: Engage with communities most at risk 

The starting point is with communities most at risk themselves: seek their vision and ensure their perspective is at the heart of all that is carried out. 

In risk-informed development stage one it is crucial to listen to them articulate what is happening in their context. The conversation should engage them with knowledge of what is happening around them – a wider perspective of the decisions taken elsewhere or wider phenomenon – that ultimately impacts their lives. From this, it is possible to capture their aspirations for the future.   

• Go to stage 1

Stage 2: Organise around the vision of the community most at risk

Community members, civil society organisations (CSOs) and other stakeholders prepare and organise themselves to work together for risk-informed development planning in stage two. 

• Go to stage 2

Stage 3: Understand context and risks

There is a need for communities most at risk to interact with scientific knowledge and emerging global contexts in order to gain a better understanding of the context-specific risks and relationships, and therefore develop through informed analysis and choices. Risk-informed development stage three is achieved by gathering knowledge and data with the community most at risk and from other secondary sources. This stage covers key aspects around context and risk assessment and relationship mapping.

• Go to stage 3

Phase II: Assess and anticipate

Stage 4: Risk prioritisation and development impact assessment

Community risk prioritisation enables communities to make decisions on what to prioritise and what the key challenges are in addressing risks and building resilience. For this stage, various conditional and impact assessments are recommended to gain a deeper understanding of complex risks and their impacts on communities and the landscape they occupy. 

• Go to stage 4

Stage 5: Strategic foresight and scenario planning

This stage is about helping communities to re-imagine their visions and goals based on a better understanding of future trends and emerging issues. It provides tools and methods to engage communities in foreseeing future trends. Mega-trend analysis, scenario imagining and back-casting the community vision are the key components of strategic foresight. 

• Go to stage 5

Stage 6: Strategise with communities most at risk

During risk-informed development stage six, communities (facilitated by CSOs) will be able to learn from examples and best practice, identify and agree on necessary action, and make decisions around prevention, and mitigation and resilience building. It is important that prioritisation by the communities most at risk is incorporated in the priorities of the wider communities. This is arguably where the biggest challenge of development lies. 

• Go to stage 6

Phase III: Act and manage

Stage 7: Action with communities most at risk

Implement the necessary actions and interventions that communities have decided upon. Different modes to implement the actions and other aspects involved in realising action (such as finding coherence with other relevant projects, schemes and plans) need to be considered. 

• Go to stage 7

Stage 8: Accountability to communities most at risk and learning with them

Whilst documented as stage eight, accountability to, and learning with, communities most at risk should take place across the entire process, as well as at the end. As momentum builds around what is taking place, it is hoped that more stakeholders will join the process and that shared learning – via formal and informal review processes – can lead to sustained progress. Accountability processes should mobilise a responsible use of power by duty bearers and stakeholder responsible for development.  

• Go to stage 8

Stage 9: Repeat and strengthen

Risk-informed development planning is not a one-time activity. Its success is anchored in sharing learning, strengthening action and revisiting the process to improve development. This is because risks and risk drivers are dynamic and so is development and growth. CSOs and communities can improve or expand the scale of their risk-informed development planning process in the next cycle based on insights gained by action and learning. GNDR hopes that through the success of a first risk-informed engagement, communities are empowered to address more complex issues, bigger risks or more powerful barriers.

• Go to stage 9

View the complete Risk-Informed Development Guide

This resource is taken from our Risk-Informed Development Guide, which provides a comprehensive overview of the nine risk-informed development stages.

Stage 1: How to engage with communities most at risk