Introduction and methodology

Introduction

Forced displacement is on the rise and a driver of disaster risk. In 2020, conflict and disasters triggered 40.5 million new internal displacements across 149 countries and territories. 

This led to a total of 55 million internally displaced people across the world. 9.8 million were internally displaced by conflict and violence, and 30.7 million as a result of disaster – the highest figures coming from storms (14.6m), floods (14m) and cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons (13.6m). It is estimated that 26.3 million people are refugees.

Average displacement is 20 years

Knowing that the average length of displacement is twenty years, protracted displacement has become common. Rather than safe and controlled evacuation and resettlement, up to one in four displaced persons end up in informal settlements, often on the edge of cities and urban areas. Whilst cities can be places of opportunity, new arrivals can also face isolation, cultural difference and exclusion. It is critical that not only the short-term needs of displaced persons are met but also factors of their reality are understood to ensure durable solutions and long-term resilience are built. 

A driver of risk

Forced displacement is seen as a disaster risk driver by GNDR. Those who are at risk of displacement or already displaced face a significantly increased probability of protection, wellbeing and resilience vulnerabilities. They are more vulnerable to hazards and other risks or threats than those able to stay in their chosen place of residence, and they also face incredible difficulties in strengthening their resilience. 

In order to understand the challenges faced, displaced persons living in informal settlements in urban areas around the world, the civil society organisations (CSOs) supporting them and local government representatives responsible for their welfare shared their perspectives. Views from the Frontline (VFL) methodology, as well as other participatory techniques, were used. Perspectives gathered on their risk context and enabling environment have been made to draw findings and conclusions on how forced displacement can be addressed. 

Causes of displacement

For the purposes of VFL, the main causes of displacement were defined as:

• Social hazards including, but not limited to, domestic violence, political tension or division and discrimination
• Disasters or natural hazards including, but not limited to, aspects such as floods, extreme weather events, earthquakes, etc. 
• Conflict including, but not limited to, violence, war, rioting and terrorist attacks. 
• Economic including, but not limited to, poverty and having to seek work elsewhere
• Other

Stakeholder mapping, hazard mapping, story analysis, policy analysis and focus group discussions were also held within these urban displaced communities.  To complement this, 185 stories from GNDR members around the world were analysed and a roundtable discussion of 52 stakeholders from academia, civil society, UN agencies and international organisations reviewed and confirmed the findings and conclusions of the research.