Climate risk management with the local community

Introduction

It is necessary to contextualise information gathered to understand how climate risk and resilience affect development in the specific community’s context. Links between various local, regional or global factors, how these affect different people, communities, places and social or physical systems, guides what action to take, should be explored.

In doing so, a process of analysing the knowledge offered from the different stakeholders is achieved, thus supporting communities and CSOs to interpret existing weather data within their local context.

Understanding and managing the impacts of future climate change is often referred to as ‘climate risk management’. Scientifically, uncertainty is inherent to projecting changes to climate in the future. There is also uncertainty from a lack of knowledge of the extent to which future populations will be exposed and therefore vulnerable to these climate changes.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports on the main risks from climate change at the global level. The suggested information can be used in engaging communities in topics that affect them based on their context:

• Global: Hazards, key vulnerabilities, key risks and emergent risks
• Global: Key sectoral risks from climate change and the potential for reducing risks through adaptation and mitigation
• Regional Level: Key risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa
• Regional level: Cross-cutting fact sheets

Information ecosystem mapping

Some practical ways for supporting dialogue between communities most at risk, civil society organisations and national meteorological offices include information ecosystem mapping to support inclusive communication of climate services:

• Survey populations that are directly impacted by climate-related risks to identify the sources of information they commonly use and the channels and networks through which they receive it, as well as the climate services they currently receive; GNDR uses View from the Frontline as one methodology for this
• Placing the populations at risk in the centre, map out the survey results
• Request the national meteorological agency to map out the channels and networks through which their forecasts are currently shared, if possible through associate CSOs or NGOs at national or international level
• Identify key gaps and challenges in ensuring their services reach those populations most directly impacted
• Assess how you could support communication to ensure more timely and inclusive reach to those people most impacted by weather and climate

Case study: Information ecosystem mapping in Tanzania

This two-page downloadable case study illustrates the use of information ecosystem mapping in the DARAJA project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Here, the Centre for Community Initiatives worked with the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) to extend the reach of their services to residents of the city’s informal settlements.

Additional resources

Climate context and risk analysis options

• Forecast-based financing and early action for drought
• Integrating climate change adaptation into secure livelihoods 
• Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis handbook

How to interpret weather and climate information

The probabilistic nature of information

• Shear, Braced, Wiser. A Practical Guide to Seasonal Forecasts.

Forecast skill

• Met Office videos on seasonal forecasting, particularly introduction and parts 1 to 4 
• ENSO blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their impacts
• The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre game “Paying for Predictions”
• A brief discussion of forecast reliability
• Comprehensive summary of all commonly-applied forecast verification metrics
• EUMETSAT training course on forecast verification

Integrating scientific and traditional knowledge

• Ambani, M., Shikuku, P., Maina, J.W., and Percy, F. 2018. Practical guide to Participatory Scenario Planning: Seasonal climate information for resilient decision-making
• CONFER, 2021, Integrating diverse knowledge types in the development of climate services for improved agro-pastoral community resilience
• Crowley, F. Audia, C., Visman, E., and Pelling, M. 2018. Interactions between local and scientific knowledge systems for weather and climate services. BRACED Learning paper #9. King’s College London. 
• Kniveton, D., Visman, E., Tall, A., Diop, M., Ewbank, R., Njoroge, E., and Pearson, L. 2014. Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather. Disasters, 39(S1), S35–S53. 
• Onyango, L., Owuor, J., Oloo, P., Kiprop, J., Kniveton, D., Visman, E. and Carswell, O. 2020, Integrating Scientific Knowledge and Traditional Knowledge in Impact Weather Forecasting 
• Visman, E., Pearson, L., Murphy, R (2014) Dialogues for Disaster Anticipation and Resilience. Accessible through individual case studies of approaches to support dialogue at Dialogues for Resilience – Humanitarian Futures
• Ziervogel, G. and Opere, A. (editors). 2010. Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in the agricultural sector. International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa learning paper series. 

Risk-informed development

• Stage three of the Risk-informed Development Guide suggests participatory relationship mapping exercises to help communities better understand complex linkages between context and risks in development planning; tools such as transect walks, observation and mapping; focus group discussion, household interviews and Views from the Frontline methodology; storytelling and local, traditional or indigenous knowledge gathering also support this process

Next stage: Mess mapping to prioritise climate risks

Previous stage: Collaborate with climate stakeholders

Localising climate projections